Hillary's Hypocrisy

On May 31, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will entertain options for seating delegations from Florida and Michigan in spite of the states' noncompliance with well-established party rules. In anticipation of the festivities, the Clinton campaign is mobilizing large-scale protests, lodging false claims of sexism at the media and invoking slavery, Jim Crow and the civil rights movement as appropriate analogues for their pursuit. To quote one former President, "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen."

Clinton's concern for Florida and Michigan was borne of a peculiar brand of perceived necessity. While Clinton is throwing every instrument of division at any- and everyone in sight, she and her campaign well know that she stands no chance of wresting the nomination away from Obama.

"Well, you know, It's clear, this election they're having [in Michigan] is not going to count for anything," Clinton said in October 2007. Why? Because Michigan (like Florida) broke the rules and Edwards and Obama took their names off the ballot.

In May 2008, circumstances have changed. Clinton finds herself sailing down the proverbial creek without a paddle -- if only she could drag Obama along with her, then maybe, just maybe, she might have another shot in 2012. In the meantime, party and country be damned.

So when the Clinton protests air on Saturday, don't be fooled. Clinton has placed her self-interest ahead of party and country, embraced hypocrisy as a favored campaign tactic and, most regrettably, damaged her credibility beyond repair.

"Several Dozen" Supers to Back Obama After June 3

After the Democratic primary season comes to a close on June 3, several dozen superdelegates will move en masse to Sen. Obama according to ABC's Chief Political Correspondent George Stephanopoulos. Stephanolpolous formerly served in the Clinton administration as the President's Senior Adviser for Policy and Strategy.

"Once these contests are done, you'll see several dozen superdelegates go his [Obama's] way following June 3," Stephanopoulos said today.

When asked what the chances are of Clinton taking her fight to the convention floor, Stephanopoulos answered, "Zero."

Clinton Campaign in Talks with Obama About VP Spot

CNN has just reported that Sen. Clinton's campaign has entered into formal talks with Sen. Obama's campaign about the possibility of Sen. Clinton becoming Obama's running mate. The discussions apparently include ways in which Sen. Clinton can make a graceful exit -- good news for Sen. Obama and the party as a whole.

Our Republic's Top 10 Vice Presidential Prospects

As the race for the Democratic nomination winds down and Sen. Obama begins to consider possible running mates, he will derive some comfort from the fact that there is no shortage of talent in the Democratic party. Of course, this is not to say that he will not have a tough choice before him. Some candidates are more qualified for the job while others are better for the electoral bottom-line. Therein lies the dilemma. Here's what our list would look like.

1. Sen. John Edwards

It is of little consequence that Sen. Kerry failed to carry North Carolina with Sen. Edwards on the ticket. Fair or not, North Carolinians think better of Illinois than Massachusetts. Moreover, Americans' opposition to the war in Iraq and concerns about the economy were relatively modest in November 2004. As Edwards's performance on the campaign trail and cable news networks have demonstrated, he is tougher and more popular than he once was.

Most importantly, Edwards's appeal extends well-beyond North Carolina, into states like Virginia and among white working class voters nationwide. As we noted yesterday, an Obama/Edwards ticket appears to dominate the field. In Virginia, for example, Obama/Edwards beats McCain/Huckabee 53% to 41, McCain/Romney 53% to 40 and McCain/Pawlenty 54% to 36.

With Edwards on the ticket, Obama has a partner who is ready to be President should the need arise -- and a running mate that will help him carry North Carolina and Virginia.

2. Sen. Jim Webb

A Jacksonian Democrat with impeccable national security credentials, a strong command of economic issues, significant cross-over appeal and a natural ability to connect with white working class voters. Obviously, he would help Sen. Obama carry Virginia. However, he is still somewhat of an unknown commodity with a cool, wonkish and occasionally awkward demeanor. But if you want to get tough on national security and foreign policy, there are few better to have in your corner.

3. Sen. Hillary Clinton

One cannot ignore the fact that Sen. Clinton has amassed a formidable coalition of female and working class voters -- at least on the Democratic side. Her high negatives would be problematic and, sadly, a female or minority on the ticket may be more change than the country can handle at this time. Nonetheless, she is tough, relatively strong on national security and will assuredly bring out the base of the party on election day.

4. Sen. Claire McCaskill

A maverick in her own right who has built a reputation in the Senate as a straight-shooter whose cross-examinations make the most-seasoned Oil executives sweat. With McCaskill, Obama will most likely carry Missouri and a greater share of women nationally.

5. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius

A popular female Governor in a Red State with executive experience to round out the ticket.

6. Fmr. Sen. Sam Nunn

A national security and foreign policy guru who brings instant credibility on these issues. However, he is 3 years younger than McCain and is a tough sell on a change ticket.

7. Sen. Evan Bayh

A former Governor who is indeed an institution in Indiana. Would help unite the Clintonites.

8. Sen. Jack Reed

Offers credibility on national security; speaks and looks the part.

9. Gov. Bill Richardson

Undoubtedly the strongest resume of the bunch; helps with the latino vote.

10. Gov. Ted Strickland

Ohio.

Harold Ickes Still Crazy

Harold Ickes, Senior Adviser to Sen. Clinton, is out of his mind. Today Ickes asserted that Sen. Obama should receive 0 delegates out of Michigan since his name was not on the ballot. Of course, it is common knowledge that Obama supporters in Michigan had urged voters to cast their ballots for "uncommitted." In addition, it is indisputable that a great many voters did not cast ballots having been told that their candidate would not be on the ballot and, even if he were, that their votes would not count.

"The views of the voters in the Michigan primary and in the Florida primary [should] be respected and be reflected in terms of the allocation of delegates," Ickes said. "It is presumptuous to assume that each and every one of those delegates is an Obama supporter. That will be up to those individual delegates to make those decisions."

While the Clinton campaign's desperation is understandable, Ickes's proposal would have the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee jump headfirst off the deep end into an empty pool.

SurveyUSA: Obama Beats McCain in Virginia

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Obama with a 7 point lead over Sen. McCain in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Obama leads among men 48% to 44, among women 51% to 40 and among every age group save voters aged 65 and older. Obama also beats McCain among independents and captures a whopping 17 percent of the GOP vote.

SurveyUSA also polled some possible VP candidates. Sen. John Edwards dominated the pool. With Edwards on the ticket, Obama downs McCain/Huckabee 53% to 41, McCain/Romney 53% to 40 and McCain/Pawlenty 54% to 36.

The Morning Report

Clinton signals she may take her fight to Denver. Sen. Clinton trails Sen. Obama by nearly 200 delegates, more than 550,000 popular votes and 16 contests with just Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota left on the calendar. To a mere mortal, Sen. Clinton's uphill climb would seem impossible (because it is). But, as the media constantly reminds us, she's a Clinton (whatever that means). As such, Clinton sent out new signals yesterday that she may take her fight for the nomination all the way to Denver (leaving no Democrat alive).

Thank you, Jonathan Alter. I was beginning to think I was the only one who noticed that Sen. Clinton's wholly ficticious claim to the popular vote has thus far gone unchallenged. This morning, Mr. Alter took a brief reprieve from his usual, more substantive analysis to give the cable news networks and many in the print media a needed refresher on the finer points of counting. Mr. Alter also offered some advice to the Obama campaign; advice they and all sensible Democrats should heed. "If the Obama people have any sense, they will demand in their negotiations with the Clintonites that Hillary cease and desist in her specious claim to have won the most popular votes," he writes.

Conan on the Native American Vote. "This week, Barack Obama, true story, campaigned on an Indian reservation and the tribal chief adopted him . . . Yeah, the Indians actually prefer Obama to John McCain, because they still remember when McCain took their land."

Media Fails to Challenge Clinton's Popular Vote Fable

If there were a single common thread in last night's coverage, it was the failure of the cable news media to challenge Clinton's claim to the popular vote. When Clinton surrogates and the candidate herself asserted the ficition, the punditry remained silent, as if weary of the truth and willing to cede to the loser a moral victory she has not earned. Various print media including the Politico and the New York Times followed suit this morning.

The fact of the matter is that Obama commands a popular vote lead of more than 550,000. This includes the caucus states because these contests were contested by both Obama and Clinton and valid under the rules -- rules that all Democratic candidates agreed to abide by. Even if one were to exclude the caucus states, give Florida and Michigan to Clinton and Michigan's uncommitted vote to Obama, Clinton would still trail Obama in the popular vote.

Still Clinton persists, in spite of the impossible math and the general election prospects of the near-certain nominee. As I write this entry, Clinton is touching down in the Sunshine State, where she intends to spend the day convincing Floridians that Obama wants nothing more than to disenfranchise them.

The latest polls show that Democrats are looking forward to November. All indications from the Clinton campaign are that they too are preparing for the general election -- in 2012.

Obama Opens Up 17 Point Lead in Oregon

A new poll of likely Democratic voters in Oregon shows Sen. Obama with a commanding 51% to 34 lead over Sen. Clinton. The poll was conducted by Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall and has a margin of error of +-4.8 points. Obama leads not only among men, but also among women, working class and rural voters.

"One of the messages Clinton has been driving is that Obama is having a hard time with white voters, but here in Oregon, he's clearly doing very well," Hibbitts said.

Obama Takes It To The House

On Wednesday, Sen. Clinton returned to Capitol Hill and summoned uncommitted superdelegates to her chambers in hope of persuading them to back her or else stay on the fence. Few answered her call. Sen. Obama, the probable Democratic nominee, showed infinitely more humility this morning when he strolled unannounced onto the House floor in the middle of a vote to solicit members' support. Shailagh Murray of the Washington Post offered the following account:

The senator's escorts included Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky and Steven Rothman (N.J.), an early defector from a pro-Clinton state, who hovered nearby for the entire 40-minute session, whispering names into Obama's ear and beaming proudly. Rep. Ellen Tauscher (Calif.), a Clinton supporter, waited her turn to extend a warm handshake. Uncommitted Rep. Bart Stupak (Mich.) got a few minutes of quality schmooze time. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer bowed gallantly and gave bama a big hug. The Maryland Democrat is neutral -- officially at least.

Republicans lined up too: David Dreier (Calif.), Jerry Lewis (Calif.), Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.), and Roscoe Bartlett (Md.). Rep. Judy Biggert, from Obama's homestate of Illinois, tapped him on the shoulder to say hi. Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin congratulated Obama and spoke to him briefly...
...
Eventually, Obama escaped, only to be greeted by around 100 Congressional pages waiting in the hallway for a group photo with the Democratic front-runner.

(Photo by Doug Mills, New York Times)

And We Have a Nominee

Our Republic has just returned from North Carolina, having witnessed Sen. Obama deliver the long-awaited knockout punch (as we predicted). Sen. Clinton entered Tuesday promising a game-changer in North Carolina and Indiana -- and a game-changer it was . . . just not the sort Clinton had hoped for. Instead of a landing a big win in Indiana and a competitive showing in North Carolina, Clinton battled to a virtual tie in Indiana and a crippling 56% to 42 defeat in North Carolina. By all accounts, the race for the Democratic nomination is over.

Where We Stand

On the day, Obama netted at least 97 delegates while Clinton picked up at least 86. Obama now has 1,594 elected delegates, 262 superdelegates and 1,856 delegates in total. He is just 169 delegates shy of the nomination and is likely to win a majority of elected delegates in two weeks, when voters in Kentucky and Oregon head to the polls. This assumes, of course, that Clinton makes it that far. Yesterday, we learned that Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million over the past month -- on top of an earlier $5 million loan.

Questions about Obama's toughness and electability have been answered. For more than two weeks, the media has obsessed about Rev. Wright and Obama's misstatement concerning small-town voters. At the same time, Clinton and McCain ganged up on Obama over his refusal to support a gas tax holiday -- a disasterous policy proposal with great political appeal . . . or so they thought. Throughout, Obama stood his ground, answered controversy with poise and purpose and in so doing earned the admiration and support of Democratic voters.

Clinton's Legacy on the Line

Clinton waged a fierce and respectable campaign. She and her supporters have every reason to be proud. That being said, the manner of Clinton's exit will determine whether she emerges stronger for it. While Clinton has no chance of winning the Democratic nomination, she has a promising future indeed. A graceful exit will ultimately open a number of doors, including Senate Majority Leader, Governor of New York or elder statesperson in the mold of Ted Kennedy.

Should Clinton persist in her questionable attacks of the past couple of weeks and in her attempts to drive a wedge between Obama and working class whites, she is likely to find the aforementioned doors bolted shut and her standing in the party greatly diminished. As House Majority Leader James Clyburn suggested over a week ago, the party cannot, should not and, I believe, will not tolerate any attempt to bloody Obama with an eye towards 2012.

Thus far, Clinton appears to be on the right course. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Lawrence O'Donnell and others have spoken with senior officials and advisers in the Clinton campaign. Sen. Clinton understands that the end is near and has indicated that the negative campaigning will cease altogether.

Time to Unite

While Clinton has earned the right to continue until inevitability is actualized, the voters have spoken and the contest is at an end. It is now time for uncommitted superdelegates to show leadership and rally behind the new leader of their party, Sen. Barack Obama.

California Superdelegates Aligned with Clinton Consider Defecting to Obama

The Los Angeles Times reports today that some California superdelegates are considering defecting from Clinton to Obama. At the California Democratic Convention, two of five California superdelegates aligned with Clinton said that they will consider switching their support to Obama if Clinton fails to emerge on top in either pledged delegates or the popular vote.

Practically speaking, Clinton has no chance of catching Obama in pledged delegates. As we noted earlier, Clinton would need to win 85 percent of the vote in all remaining contests (assuming a 50-50 split in North Carolina and Indiana). Clinton's prospects for winning the popular vote are also unlikely as she currently trails Obama by more than 500,000 votes -- and well over 600,000 if caucus estimates are included.

Numbers Don't Add Up for Clinton

Heading into the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, the Clinton camp has to be wondering whether tomorrow's two-state contest is anything but an exercise in futility. Were Clinton and Obama to split the 187 delegates at stake, Clinton would then need 85 percent of all remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama. In other words, Clinton needs big wins in both North Carolina and Indiana if she hopes to seriously contest the nomination.

It is more likely, however, that Obama will expand his delegate lead tomorrow. According the latest polls, Obama commands a 7 point lead in North Carolina -- the most delegate rich contest left -- and is nipping on Clinton's heels in Indiana.

Clinton Adviser on Indianans: "Those People Are Shit"

A disturbing video has surfaced that could end Sen. Clinton's run for the Democratic nomination. In it, Clinton advisers Mickey Kantor, James Carville and George Stephanopoulous are reviewing the latest polls out of Indiana, when Kantor remarks, "It doesn't matter if we win. Those people are shit." See for yourselves.

Zogby: Obama Up 16 in N.C., Tied in Indiana

Sen. Obama's unequivocal denunciation of Rev. Wright has apparently struck a chord with voters as he is now ahead by 16 in North Carolina and tied with Sen. Clinton in Indiana. Both polls were conducted by Zogby and carry margins of error just under +-4 points.

In North Carolina, Obama bests Clinton in every age group save voters over 70, whom he and Clinton split. He leads among men, 57% to 30, and also among women, 44% to 37. When asked if the statements of Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, only 15% of North Carolinians said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said Wright's statements made them more likely to support Obama.

While other polls show Clinton leading Obama in Indiana, Zogby has the two senators deadlocked at 42% with 16% undecided. Catholics in Pennsylvania went heavily for Clinton, but Indiana Catholics narrowly favor Obama 41% to 40. The Wright controversy has had a greater impact in Indiana with 21% of voters saying Wright's statements made them less likely to support Obama.

Fmr. DNC Chair Joe Andrew Defects to Obama

Sen. Obama received a key endorsement today as former Democratic National Committee Chairman and superdelegate Joe Andrew switched his support from Sen. Clinton to Sen. Obama and called on other party leaders to do the same. Mr. Andrew previously served as Chairman of Indiana's Democratic Party.

"We cannot let our family affair hurt America,'' Mr. Andrew wrote in a letter to fellow superdelegates. "It is clear that a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists John McCain."

Mr. Andrew's defection couldn't have come at a better time. Sen. Obama needs to change the subject today or else news of Rev. Wright is likely to dominate the weekend news cycle.

"[Obama] has shown such mettle under fire," Mr. Andrew said at a news conference. "The Jeremiah Wright controversy just reconfirmed for me, just as the gas tax controversy [yesterday's entry] confirmed for me, that he is the right candidate for our party."

Kerry Blasts NBC for Obsession With Wright

Sen. John Kerry blasted NBC and other cable news networks today for obsessing over Rev. Wright while ignoring the many critical challenges facing the American people.

KERRY: Can I say something to you? Obviously it is painful and he said it. You folks need to let go of this. Television needs to stop dwelling on something that is in the past. I thought Barack Obama yesterday gave America his second big presidential moment of this campaign. The first when he spoke out about the issue of race and the second yesterday, when he made it clear, every one of the statements of the minister are just unacceptable. They're not the person that he knew before.

Now let's move on to how we'll put people to work. How are you going to give people health care? How are you going to create jobs in America? What Barack Obama is offering in this gas price issue is real leadership. I mean, do we want people who sort of put their fingers in the wind and throw out an idea for the short term that is sort of politically pleasing, or do you want a leader who stands up and says, no, what we need is to really lower gas prices by having a real energy policy, an intelligent policy that puts in place the incentives for renewable fuels and alternative fuels. That's what Barack Obama is doing. And I think you guys have to focus on the thing that really matter to the American electorate. The other thing is just worn out, old history now. This guy had his narcissistic moment and it is finished.

WITT: Okay -- point well taken. And did I say to begin, can I just say, sir, I knew you weren't going to like that question -- just on the record.

KERRY: Let's move on to the things that really matter to people. I think people in America are tired of this stuff.

WITT: Okay.

Amen.

Mason-Dixon: Obama Up 7 in North Carolina

Despite four-straight days of Rev. Wright on the cable news networks, Sen. Obama remains 7 points ahead of Sen. Clinton in North Carolina according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. This is not to say that Wright has not hurt Obama; he has. However, the poll, conducted April 28-29, is not a reliable measure of the damage done as it takes stock of Wright's media tour, but not Obama's denunication of Wright on Tuesday.

When asked what issues are most important, 51 percent of North Carolinians said jobs and the economy; 14 percent said the Iraq war. Clinton received the highest marks on the economy and jobs while Obama scored highest on the Iraq War.

Hey Democrats, The DNC Needs Our Help

The cash has poured into the Obama and Clinton campaigns this primary season, shattering all records and putting McCain at a theoretical disadvantage. McCain's disadvantage is, unfortunately, theoretical at this point because we do not have a nominee and the excitement surrounding Obama and Clinton has diverted critical financing away from our party.

According to FEC filings, the DNC is in dire financial straits with just over $5 million on hand. The RNC is doing considerably better with $31 million on hand. As a result, McCain has been free to define himself and our Presidential candidates at the same time the RNC slams our House and Senate candidates.

Although the media licks their lips at the prospect of a divided Democratic party and chaos at the Convention, it is incumbent on supporters of Clinton and Obama alike to rise above the primary smoke and fire and prepare for the battle ahead. McCain's had a free ride to date. Let's come together and end it.

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