Clinton Risks Too Much in Gas Tax Pandering

Senators Clinton and McCain have both attacked Sen. Obama for refusing to support a temporary 18 cent-per-gallon tax "holiday." While residents of Indiana and North Carolina are rightly concerned about gas prices, the Clinton-McCain tax holiday would do far more harm than good. That's why most Economists and Governors oppose it, including Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, a Clinton supporter.

The gas tax holiday would rob the states of needed revenue at a time when most are facing budget shortfalls. More importantly, it could cost hundreds of thousands of American jobs, particularly in construction, and forestall critical investments in infrastructure -- investments that may well prevent another major bridge from collapsing and ultimately save lives.

For these and other reasons, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and the Democratic leadership in Congress are right to oppose this reckless "holiday." It may not be the politically expedient to do, but it is surely the right thing.

GOP Ignores Clinton, Takes Aim at Obama

Today in the Politico, Jonathan Martin observes that while Clinton's win in Pennsylvania enabled her to continue for another round, "you wouldn’t know it from listening to the Republican party." The GOP has turned the whole of its attention to Obama, purchasing $0.5 million in ads and flooding reporters with anti-Obama emails.

"Even when Clinton attacks McCain, President Bush or GOP policies, the response is either outright silence or snarky, dismissive ridicule about a failed campaign barely relevant enough to merit a response," Martin writes.

Whereas the RNC dispatched 18 emails attacking Obama in the wake of the Pennsylvania primary, the RNC sent out 0 emails concerning Clinton. While the GOP and McCain campaign concede that Clinton has little or no chance of capturing the Democratic nomination, it is, as we discussed yesterday, in their best interest to see the contest drag on as long as possible.

New Michigan Proposal Unacceptable

Under a new proposal for seating Michigan's delegation, Sen. Clinton would be awarded 69 delegates while Sen. Obama would receive 59. This is simply unacceptable.

One cannot honor the DNC's decision to strip Michigan of its delegates and at the same time declare a winner. In consequence of Michigan's deliberate violation of party rules, the candidates were barred from campaigning there and took a pledge not to do so. Consistent with the DNC's action, Sen. Obama, Sen. Biden, Sen. Edwards and Gov. Richardson had their names withdrawn from the ballot.

Michiganders were left with a single viable candidate to vote for, Sen. Clinton, who said "it's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything." And Clinton should know; the rules at issue were crafted and adopted by Clinton Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe and members of the DNC Commission on Presidential Timing and Scheduling - all of whom were appointed by McAuliffe. (See "A Defining Moment for Democrats")

While it may be in the best interests of the Democratic party to seat delegations from Florida and Michigan, any arrangement other than a 50-50 split would be unfair, unjust and undemocratic.

Obama Denounces Wright

Sen. Obama unequivocally denounced Rev. Wright's three-day media tour today, saying that he was "outraged" by Wright's recent remarks and "saddened by the spectacle."

"I cannot prevent him from making these remarks," Obama said, "but when I say I find these comments appalling, I mean it. It contradicts what I'm about and who I am . . . It is completely opposed to what I stand for and where I want to take this country."

Watch the entire press conference below.

Hillary to Court GOP Voters on O'Reilly Factor

With an open primary in Indiana forthcoming, Operation Chaos sounds pretty good to Hillary Clinton. Both Clinton and the GOP apparently share the common goal of seeing Clinton emerge as the Democratic nominee in Denver, or as is more likely the case, dragging the Democratic contest through the mud as long as possible. To that end, Clinton and McCain have sychronized their assault on Sen. Obama in recent weeks. Now Clinton plans to state her case directly to GOP voters in a two-day series on the O'Reilly Factor. Nevermind that the host is a hatemonger and bigot.

Why are Limbaugh, McCain and O'Reilly aligning themselves with Clinton? The answer is very simple (as we have repeatedly noted). Clinton viewed favorably and seen as honest and trustworthy by just 37% and 39% of voters respectively. In other words, McCain's chances in the general election are markedly better with Clinton as an opponent.

Obama Commands 14 Point Lead in New NC Poll

Rev. Wright has had little effect on Sen. Obama's run in the Tar Heel State, Rasmussen's latest poll of likely North Carolina voters shows. Obama commands a formidable 14 point lead (51% to 37) over Clinton in the most delegate rich contest left. Whereas Obama is viewed favorably by 71 percent of Carolina Dems, Clinton's favorability has dropped four points to 62 percent.

Obama does need to continue to reach out to lower-income white voters as Clinton maintains a significant advantage among whites earning under $60,000. Among whites earning more than $75,000, Obama remains on top.

Hillary's Ticket: McCain 2008, Clinton 2012?

Hillary is campaigning for 2012 says Dick Morris, political commentator and former adviser to President Clinton. "The math is dead against her and she’s a realist." As the New York Senator has no chance of catching up to Obama in pledged delegates, it makes perfect sense.

Should Obama defeat McCain in the general election, Hillary may not have another crack at the Presidency until 2016, when she'll be 69 years old.

"But if McCain wins," Morris says, "she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year."

Pennsylvania was, practically speaking, Hillary's last stand. She needed a blowout to make meaningful inroads into Obama's formidable delegate lead. As Peter Fenn, an unaffiliated Democratic consultant, described it, "The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow." But the wheels did not come off and the engine remained intact as Hillary scored a meager 9 delegates (less than Obama netted in states like Idaho and Kansas).

Of course, Mr. Morris is not the first prominent Democrat to suggest that Hillary is going Tonya Harding on Obama. On Friday, House Majority Whip James Clyburn related a conversation he had with Democratic members on the House floor. "[T]hey’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win," they said. Only then could Hillary consummate her Presidential aspirations.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that Democrats urge Hillary to drop out. However, Democrats ought to hold her accountable for GOP-style, scorched earth attacks on the probable Democratic nominee because, as Mr. Morris points out, Hillary has already demonstrated that self-interest trumps party.

"In 2004, it is pretty obvious that Hillary did nothing to help John Kerry beyond giving a speech at the convention and waging a token campaign on his behalf," Morris observes. "Bill did even less. Their goal was obvious: they wanted Kerry to lose to Bush so that Hillary could run in 2008. Is she playing the same game now? Only time will tell."

What about Pastors Synder, Hagee and Huckabee?

As the media continues to drill Obama over his former pastor, one cannot help but wonder why they have completely ignored the words and deeds of the other candidates' spiritual advisors.

Hillary Clinton's own pastor, Dean J. Synder of the Foundry United Methodist Church, has lavished praise on Rev. Wright, calling him, among other things, "an outstanding church leader," "a profound voice for justice and inclusion in our society" and "an agent of racial reconciliation." When the Lewinsky scandal erupted, President Clinton invited Rev. Wright and other religious leaders to the White House to solicit their understanding and counsel.

Perhaps most disturbing is the free pass John McCain has been given with respect to Pastor John Hagee. Pastor Hagee, of course, is the infamous church leader who maintains that God sent Hurricane Katrina to New Orleans as punishment for a gay rights march. Hagee also believes that "all Muslims have a mandate to kill Christians and Jews" and that the "feminist movement today is throwing off authority in rebellion against God's pattern for the family." Oh, and Hagee once planned a "slave sale" to benefit high school seniors in his congregation. But none of this seems to merit media attention.

And what about Governor Huckabee's recent remarks in defense of Obama? As an ordinated minister, one would think his insights more valuable than the partisan talking heads on the cable news networks.

[Obama] made the point, and I think it's a valid one, that you can't hold the candidate responsible for everything that people around him may say or do. You just can't. Whether it's me, whether it's Obama . . . anybody else. But he did distance himself from the very vitriolic statements.
. . .
And one other thing I think we've gotta remember. As easy as it is for those of us who are white, to look back and say "That's a terrible statement!". . . I grew up in a very segregated south. And I think that you have to cut some slack -- and I'm gonna be probably the only Conservative in America who's gonna say something like this, but I'm just tellin' you -- we've gotta cut some slack to people who grew up being called names, being told "you have to sit in the balcony when you go to the movie. You have to go to the back door to go into the restaurant. And you can't sit out there with everyone else. There's a separate waiting room in the doctor's office. Here's where you sit on the bus . . ." And you know what? Sometimes people do have a chip on their shoulder and resentment. And you have to just say, I probably would too. I probably would too. In fact, I may have had more of a chip on my shoulder had it been me.

The media's double standard in covering Wright has been, and continues to be, both shameful and irresponsible. I frankly believe this entire conversation is a distraction from the many critical substantive challenges we face, but if we are going to have it, there ought to be -- and we must continue to insist upon -- some semblance of balance. If Rev. Wright's remarks, presented completely out of context, are worthy of the American people's attention, so too are the remarks and experiences of the other candidates' pastors.

Clyburn Says Clinton Gunning for 2012

House Majority Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina said what many have suspected for a while now. Clinton knows she cannot win the nomination, but hopes to bloody Obama up so badly, that he'll lose to McCain and open the door to a Clinton run in 2012.

"I heard something, the first time yesterday, and I heard it on the floor today, which is telling me there are African Americans who have reached the decision that the Clintons know that she can’t win this. But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win" in November, Clyburn said.
...
The purported theory is that an Obama defeat in November against Republican presidential candidate John McCain would let Clinton make another presidential bid in four years, Clyburn said.

While Clyburn has yet to endorse a candidate, he also took the Clinton campaign to task for insisting that Michigan and Florida be included in the popular vote count.

“I think it’s so disingenuous . . . Carville and Sen. Clinton were all on TV. I’ve seen them two or three times this week, talking about counting Florida and Michigan," he said. "Her name was the only one on the ticket in Michigan and still 42, 43 percent of the vote was against her."

N.C. TV Stations Block Anti-Obama Attack Ad

Some North Carolina TV stations have refused to air the NC GOP's new ad featuring snippets of Rev. Jeremiah Wright's now-famous "roost" sermon. The ad condemns two local Democratic candidates for endorsing Sen. Obama, saying Obama is "just too extreme for North Carolina."

The TV stations have deemed the ad to be offensive and even racist.

"I just don't think it's appropriate to be on our air," said a station manager in Charlotte. "I think it's offensive, and I'm not real comfortable with the implications around race."

Although Sen. McCain and the RNC have publicly denounced the ad, it seems clear that McCain's condemnation came with a wink and a nod. Obama campaign spokesman Hari Sevugan criticized McCain's purported inability to have the ad taken down.

"The fact that Senator McCain can’t get his own party to take down this misleading, personal attack ad raises serious questions about his promise to the American people that he will run a civil, respectful campaign."

Clinton Wins by 9 Points, Nets Just 10 Delegates in Pennsylvania

With 99.99% reporting, the Pennsylvania Secretary of State confirms that Sen. Clinton fell short of the double-digit victory she had hoped for. The final tabulations show that Clinton's margin of victory was, in fact, a hair over 9 points.

While Clinton claims that "the tide is turning," she netted just 10 delegates in Pennsylvania. This can hardly be called a "big win" seeing as Obama netted more delegates in states like Idaho and Kansas.

Obama Holds Narrow Lead in Indiana Polls

Sen. Obama holds a narrow lead in Indiana according to two new polls by Research 2000 and Indy Star/Selzer. In the Research 2000 poll, Obama's 48% to 47 lead is well within the 5 point margin of error. Obama's 41% to 38 lead in the Indy Star/Selzer poll is also within the 4.2 point margin of error.

In the Indy Star/Selzer poll, Obama bests McCain 49% to 41 in a hypothetical matchup while Clinton breaks even with McCain 46% to 46. Whereas 49 percent of Democratic voters say Obama is the most electable candidate, just 35 percent say the same about Clinton. These numbers validate our analysis in "How Obama Transforms the Electoral Map II," where Obama is said to have the advantage over Clinton in Indiana.

Reid, Pelosi and Dean: Decide by July 1

Sen. Harry Reid just announced that he and Speaker Pelosi will join DNC Chairman Howard Dean in pressuring superdelegates to endorse either Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton no later than July 1. To this end, Reid said he, Pelosi and Dean are considering a joint letter to superdelegates making the party's position known.

"The three of us, we may write a joint letter, we may write individual letters,” Reid said. “We’re in contact with each other. What we will do — unless something comes up untoward — we’ll do it together."

Reid continues to believe there will be a Democratic nominee by some point in June. "If you were in Las Vegas, you could get odds,” Reid remarked. “It’s pretty well determined who’s going to win each state."

Oregon Congressman David Wu Backs Obama

Sen. Obama just picked up another superdelegate: Oregon Congressman David Wu. Wu cited Obama's superior judgment and his ability to bring real change to Washington and restore American leadership in the international community.

"Every dollar that we have spent in Iraq—which adds up to over $500 billion so far—is a dollar not spent at home, a school not built, a bridge not repaired," Wu said. "We need new policies both at home and abroad. Like Americans, the international community wants to see real change in America and I believe that Senator Obama embodies that change."

Sen. Obama is now just 291 delegates away from the Democratic nomination.

43 North Carolina Mayors, IFPTE Endorse Obama

43 North Carolina mayors from major cities and small towns including Asheville, Durham, Greensboro, Chapel Hill and Cary endorsed Sen. Obama today. The mayors cited Obama's command of issues on the front lines of local economic development and his ability to "usher in a new era of prosperity" for American workers.

"I’m honored to have the support of so many mayors from across North Carolina who are committed to working hard to change America," Obama said. "These mayors understand what leadership is, and how important it is to bring people of diverse backgrounds together to make change happen for our working families and our communities. Their support is incredibly important to this campaign – and I look forward to working with them to build a stronger economy where Main Street thrives, not just Wall Street."

Sen. Obama also picked up a big union endorsement from the AFL-CIO affiliated International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE). The IFPTE voted unanimously in favor of the endorsement yesterday.

"While IFPTE applauds both Democratic candidates, our union’s internal polling results, coupled with Senator Obama’s unblemished record of support for the critical issues facing IFPTE, prompted our action to endorse Senator Obama," IFPTE President Gregory Junemann said in a statement.

Richardson and Carville Meet on Larry King

A month ago, James Carville called Gov. Bill Richardson a "Judas" for endorsing Sen. Obama in lieu of their mutual friend, Sen. Clinton. The two men squared off on Larry King Live last night, marking the first time they've spoken since Carville's controversial remarks.

Conservative Punditry Drives Democratic Contest

In the aftermath of the Pennsylvania primary, media coverage of the Democratic race has devolved into a third grade soccer game at recess. The cruel irony is that conservatives are driving the debate. This morning, for example, Robert Novak (de)constructs the "Deepening Democratic Dilemma" in the Chicago Sun-Times, Michael Barone asks "What If She Wins the Popular Vote?" in U.S. News and Karl Rove queries "Is Obama Ready for Prime Time?" in the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, Steven Stark of the Boston Phoenix panics. "It's Time for Dems to Recruit Al Gore." This is by far the most ridiculous proposition I've heard this election cycle - and Stark is hardly the first to present it.

The fact is that Pennsylvania changed very little. Obama is way ahead in pledged delegates, states won, votes and money, and none dispute that Clinton has no chance of catching him in any of these metrics. While Karl Rove says Obama was "pummeled 55% to 45%" in Pennsylvania, he's already made two errors. First, Obama lost by less than 10 points (granted, a double-digit victory sells more papers and brings in better ratings). Second, 9 or 10 points hardly constitutes a pummeling. These are pummelings . . .

South Carolina: Obama +28
Alaska: Obama +50
Arkansas: Clinton +44
Colorado: Obama +35
Georgia: Obama +35
Idaho: Obama +63
Illinois: Obama +32
Kansas: Obama +48
Minnesota: Obama +34
North Dakota: Obama +24
Oklahoma: Clinton +24
Louisiana: Obama +24
Nebraska: Obama +36
U.S. Virgin Islands: Obama +84
Washington: Obama +37
Maine: Obama +20
Dems Abroad: Obama +34
D.C.: Obama +51
Maryland: Obama +25
Virginia: Obama +29
Hawaii: Obama +52
Vermont: Obama +20
Wyoming: Obama +23
Mississippi: Obama +24

Is it any wonder why conservatives are going after Obama? Sen. McCain has little or no chance of beating him. Clinton, on the other hand, is already on the verge of defeat. Whereas 62 percent of Americans believe Obama to be honest and trustworthy, only 39 percent say the same about Clinton. Whereas 32 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Obama, a staggering 48 percent view Clinton unfavorably.

This isn't rocket science. Clinton is still in contention with Obama because conservatives insist she is - and because independent media are having too much fun or are too happy with the ratings to report the cold, hard facts.

50 Prominent Edwards Supporters Back Obama

50 prominent supporters of Sen. John Edwards, including Edwards's former National General Chairman Ed Turlington, threw their support behind Sen. Obama today. These North Carolinians include Members of Congress, longtime friends and confidants of Sen. Edwards and the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court.

"Barack Obama and John Edwards share a commitment to taking on special interests and standing up for regular Americans. Along with Edwards supporters from across the state, I am honored to join Senator Obama's movement for change,” Turlington said. "As president, he will bring together Democrats, Republicans and Independents behind an agenda of change. From ending the war in Iraq to confronting the scourge of poverty to making health care affordable for every single American, Barack Obama will bring our country the change we need."

New York Times Blasts Clinton for Tactics "Torn Right From Karl Rove's Playbook"

The New York Times absolutely slammed Sen. Clinton this morning for taking "The Low Road to Victory" in Pennsylvania. The Times was particularly distraught that Clinton politicized the 9/11 attacks on their city, much in the same way President Bush and Rudy Giulliani have done. They were also incredulous at Clinton's admonition that should Iran attack Israel, "We would be able to totally obliterate them." Here's an excerpt of the editorial:

On the eve of this crucial primary, Mrs. Clinton became the first Democratic candidate to wave the bloody shirt of 9/11. A Clinton television ad — torn right from Karl Rove’s playbook — evoked the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor, the Cuban missile crisis, the cold war and the 9/11 attacks, complete with video of Osama bin Laden. “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” the narrator intoned.

If that was supposed to bolster Mrs. Clinton’s argument that she is the better prepared to be president in a dangerous world, she sent the opposite message on Tuesday morning by declaring in an interview on ABC News that if Iran attacked Israel while she were president: “We would be able to totally obliterate them.”

By staying on the attack and not engaging Mr. Obama on the substance of issues like terrorism, the economy and how to organize an orderly exit from Iraq, Mrs. Clinton does more than just turn off voters who don’t like negative campaigning. She undercuts the rationale for her candidacy that led this page and others to support her: that she is more qualified, right now, to be president than Mr. Obama.

It Ends on May 6th

After trailing by more than 25 points just over a month ago, Obama battled back to less than 9 points in Pennsylvania, denying Clinton the blowout she needed to make significant inroads into his delegate lead. What's worse for Clinton is that she is no longer in her childhood home, but headed for more Obama-friendly country.

In Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, Obama started well-behind Clinton, but managed to split Texas and stand his ground in the other two states. This time around, Obama begins the battle with the advantage - as the latest polls in North Carolina and Indiana show Obama leading Clinton by roughly 15 points and 5 points respectively. Unlike Clinton, Obama does better with each day on the ground.

Clinton needs big wins in both North Carolina and Indiana, but it is unlikely she'll secure a victory, let alone a big one, in either state.

Gallup: Bush Most Unpopular President Ever

In the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll, there has never been a President more unpopular than George W. Bush. In a survey of President Bush's approval conducted this weekend, 28% of Americans said they approved of the job Bush is doing while a historic 69% registered their disapproval. The previous titleholder was President Harry Truman, who scored a 67% in the midst of the Korean War.

Obama's Road Map to an Upset

That an upset is even possible is an accomplishment in itself for Sen. Obama, who just over a month ago trailed Sen. Clinton by as many as 26 points in Pennsylvania. While the likely scenario is that Clinton wins by a relatively meager 4 to 5 points, Obama has a chance to pull out an upset if he can do three things:

1. Win the city of Philadelphia by a 75% to 25 margin. Philadelphia is Obama country and Pennsylvania's most populous urban center. If he can run up the score there and minimize his losses elsewhere, Clinton simply cannot secure the big win she needs.

2. Win the Philadelphia suburbs by at least a 60% to 40 margin. While working class white voters comprise a significant proportion of the Philadelphia suburbs, there are also colleges and coffee shops. Voters are on average better educated and unapologetically progressive - two variables which weigh in Obama's favor.

3. Turnout the youth vote. Much has been said about Pennsylvania's older, blue-collar population. It is the ultimate obstacle between Obama and an upset. However, over 380,000 new voters have registered Democratic to vote in today's primary, the majority of which are converts and collegians. A new CBS/UWIRE poll shows that 71 percent of Pennsylvania college students support Obama. If these voters turn out, Obama is in good shape.

Sen. Obama on the Daily Show

Sen. Obama appeared on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart last night. Stewart asked Obama to "hope up" some everyday remarks before inquiring into whether Obama has a secret plan to enslave the white race. Obama's answer to the latter was particularly appropriate in light of recent events.

STEWART: Will you pull a bait-and-switch, sir, and enslave the white race. Is that your plan? And if it is your plan, be honest, tell us now!

OBAMA: That is not our plan, Jon, but I think your paranoia might make you suitable as a debate moderator.

Over 43,000 Democratic Votes Cast Early in N.C.

Over 43,000 Democratic ballots have been cast in North Carolina as of 11:50 am today, a remarkable showing in a state that has long tended towards the GOP candidate. No longer.

The North Carolina Secretary of State reports that 36,011 registered Democrats, 11,741 registered Republicans and 9,794 unaffiliated voters have taken advantage of early voting. Roughly 80 percent of unaffiliated voters have requested Democratic ballots. Bad news for Sen. Clinton.

According to the latest poll in North Carolina, Obama is trouncing Clinton 57% to 32. The massive early voting numbers means many North Carolinians are locking in votes for Sen. Obama before Sen. Clinton has a chance to refocus her campaign on the Tar Heel State.

Does Gore Support Obama?

In today's Wall Street Journal, Jackie Calmes reports that "[a]nother Democrat who has spoken several times with him says Mr. Gore favors Sen. Obama and has come under pressure from former supporters to endorse the Illinois senator, but has no plans to do so before the primaries end."

There has been considerable speculation on the subject, all of which suggests that Vice President Al Gore prefers Obama over Clinton. On April 13, for example, a source close to President Jimmy Carter told The Scotsman that Carter and Gore both want Clinton off-the-stage and will work together at the appropriate time to make that happen. "Carter has been talking to Gore. They will act, possibly together, or in sequence."

Democratic Surge Favors Obama in Pa.

According to the Pennsylvania Secretary of State, 217,000 new voters have registered for Tuesday's primary while 163,760 have changed their party affiliation to Democratic in order to participate. Obama is the choice of 62 percent of new registrants and newly-affiliated Democrats according to a new Madonna poll.

While Clinton is still favored to win the state, Obama's advantage among new Democrats could cut Clinton's margin by 2 or 3 points. As anything less than a double-digit victory would be a disappointment to the Clinton campaign, new Democrats will play a huge role tomorrow.

Hillary on Working Class Whites: "Screw 'em"

The blogosphere is buzzing about comments made by Sen. Clinton in the midst of a discussion about working class white voters. According to Clinton supporter Benjamin Barber, Sen. Clinton said:

"Screw ‘em. You don’t owe them a thing, Bill. They’re doing nothing for you; you don’t have to do anything for them.”

Others in attendence confirmed that Clinton had, in fact, made the comments. Among them, Harry Boyte, Director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Democracy and Citizenship:

"[Hillary] sees herself as the champion of the oppressed, but there is always a kind of good guy versus bad guy mentality. The comment before that was that 'the Reagan Democrats are our enemies and they weren't on our side,' and she was agreeing with that comment. She said we should write them off: screw them."

And Theda Skocpol:

"Barber reports in his 2001 book that Hillary Clinton said "Screw 'em" about southern working class whites who did not support Bill Clinton. Two other scholar-particiants, Alan Wolfe and Harry Boyte, agree she said this. Reported demurrals (and not a clear denial) come from Clinton staffers Bruce Reed and Ken Baer, not from the independent intellectuals in attendance. But independent witnesses who keep notes trump employees any day.

I have gone back to my 1995 notes to check my recollections of the event. My notes do not have any exact words, so I am not going to try to corroborate a particular phrase from Hillary Clinton or any other speaker.

But what is clear in both in my memory and my notes is that there was extensive, hard-nosed discussion about why masses of voters did not support Clinton or trust government or base their choices on economic as opposed to what people saw as peripheral life-style concerns. Hillary Clinton was among the most cold-blooded analysts in attendance. She spoke of ordinary voters as if they were a species apart, and showed interest only in the political usefulness of their choices -- usefulness to the Clinton administration, that is.

When asked about the comments, the Clinton campaign scrambled to discredit them:

"So, you've got two guys we've barely heard of remembering a verbatim quote from 13 years ago?" Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said, "sounds totally and completely reliable..."

Then Alan Wolfe, a Political Science Professor at at Boston College, chimed in:

"Make that three. I was there. I hope people have heard of me. And Barber and Boyte have it right."

Clinton Not Credible on Trade

Clinton is airing a new ad lamenting the loss of U.S. defense jobs to China. The only problem is that Clinton supported China's admission to the WTO and the establishment of permanent U.S. trade relations with China without securing meaningful labor and environmental standards. In other words, she dropped the ball when it mattered most to American workers.

According to the Economic Policy Institute, China's illegal trade practices cost Pennsylvania 15,640 jobs per year. In addition, the U.S. has racked up record trade deficits because of unfair trade with China. Last year, our trade deficit with China reached $256 billion, the largest in American history.

Clinton's record on China should hardly be surprising to Pennsylvanians. In Ohio, she misrepresented her record on NAFTA to win union support. Only after the votes were tallied did it become clear that she had on several occasions advocated for NAFTA's passage. "The results speak for themselves," Clinton said to the DLC on one such occasion, citing NAFTA among the policies and programs which "literally changed millions of lives and, I argue, changed America."

More recently, we learned that Clinton's Chief Strategist has been the Colombian government's point-man on a U.S.-Colombia trade agreement - an agreement Bill Clinton supports, but Hillary claims to oppose.

While Clinton's new ad strikes the right chord, the candidate herself is not credible on trade.

Zogby: Clinton Holds Narrow Lead in Pennsylvania

The latest Zogby poll has Clinton leading Obama 47% to 43 with 10 percent of voters undecided. Clinton's lead falls within the poll's +-4 margin of error. Today's poll shows that Wednesday's Democratic debate had little effect on the state of the race. Obama continues to garner strong support from African Americans, young people and liberals while Clinton fares well among women and moderate and conservative Democrats.

Watergate-era Deputy Attorney General, a Republican, Endorses Obama

Sen. Obama picked up the endorsement of a prominent Republican today: former Deputy Attorney General William D. Ruckelhaus. Ruckelhaus served as President Nixon's number two in the Justice Department before he and his boss, Attorney General Elliot Richardson, were fired for refusing to dismiss the independent counsel investigating the break-in at the Democratic National Committee. Ruckelhaus is a native of Indiana and well-respected in the state.

"Senator Obama’s ability to attract not only Democrats, but also Republicans and Independents, makes him uniquely qualified to build the broad coalitions needed to address our nation’s challenges," Ruckelshaus said in a statement released to the press.

Fourth Estate Disowns Gibson and Stephanopoulos

I observed last night that the ABC debate was something fit for the tabloids. This seems to be the consensus of members of the fourth estate who have yet to commit to a candidate. To start, Will Bunch of the Philadephia Daily News published a scathing open letter to the moderators, ABC's Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos.

It's hard to know where to begin with this, less than an hour after you signed off from your Democratic presidential debate here in my hometown of Philadelphia, a televised train wreck that my friend and colleague Greg Mitchell has already called, quite accurately, "a shameful night for the U.S. media." It's hard because -- like many other Americans -- I am still angry at what I just witnesses, so angry that it's hard to even type accurately because my hands are shaking. Look, I know that "media criticism" -- especially when it's one journalist speaking to another -- tends to be a genteel, collegial thing, but there's no genteel way to say this.

With your performance tonight -- your focus on issues that were at best trivial wastes of valuable airtime and at worst restatements of right-wing falsehoods, punctuated by inane "issue" questions that in no way resembled the real world concerns of American voters -- you disgraced my profession of journalism, and, by association, me and a lot of hard-working colleagues who do still try to ferret out the truth, rather than worry about who can give us the best deal on our capital gains taxes. But it's even worse than that. By so badly botching arguably the most critical debate of such an important election, in a time of both war and economic misery, you disgraced the American voters, and in fact even disgraced democracy itself.

Niall Stanage of the Guardian blasted the moderators from abroad in an article entitled "The dumbest debate in America?" (see also "Worst. Debate. Ever.")

Last night's debate - or, more specifically, the performance of its moderators, Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos - was by turns superficial and disingenuous.
...
About half the time set aside for the debate had elapsed - and seven flimsy or already-exhausted issues had been raised - before the first serious question of the night, about troop withdrawals from Iraq, was asked.

The relentless triviality was only one problem, however. The more serious failing was the willingness of Gibson and Stephanopoulos to volunteer as water-carriers for a conservative attack machine that, fearful of Obama's crossover appeal, is already working overtime to tarnish his reputation.

"In Pa. Debate, The Clear Loser Is ABC," says Tom Shale of the Washington Post:

When Barack Obama met Hillary Clinton for another televised Democratic candidates' debate last night, it was more than a step forward in the 2008 presidential election. It was another step downward for network news -- in particular ABC News, which hosted the debate from Philadelphia and whose usually dependable anchors, Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos, turned in shoddy, despicable performances.
...
At the end, Gibson pompously thanked the candidates -- or was he really patting himself on the back? -- for "what I think has been a fascinating debate." He's entitled to his opinion, but the most fascinating aspect was waiting to see how low he and Stephanopoulos would go, and then being appalled at the answer.

Michael Grunwald of TIME in "The Dems Play Trivial Pursuit":

At a time of foreign wars, economic collapse and environmental peril, the cringe-worthy first half of the debate focused on such crucial matters as Senator Obama's comments about rural bitterness, his former pastor, an obscure sixties radical with whom he was allegedly "friendly," and the burning constitutional question of why he doesn't wear an American flag pin on his lapel — with a single detour into Senator Hillary Clinton's yarn about sniper fire in Tuzla. Apparently, Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos ran out of time before they could ask Obama why he's such a lousy bowler.

Rem Rieder of American Journalism Review in "Silly in Philly":

Forget Clinton and Obama. The real loser of the Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia was journalism.

The relentless rat-a-tat-tat of questions about campaign distractions by ABC moderators Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos was a vivid illustration of what is so wrong with so much that passes for political coverage today.

There they were in all their glory, all the played out, warmed over flaps that the media spend way too much time obsessing over.

The Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The illusory Bosnian snipers. Bittergate. And best of all--flag pins. Flag pins!!!??!?

And Walter Shapiro of Salon:

This is the way it ends, not with a bang but a whimper. If Wednesday night's fizzle in Philly was indeed the last debate of the Democratic primary season between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, it will be remembered for, well, not much of anything.

Broadcast to a prime-time network audience on ABC and devoid of a single policy question during its opening 50 minutes, the debate easily could have convinced the uninitiated that American politics has all the substance of a Beavis and Butt-Head marathon.

Zogby: Clinton and Obama Deadlocked in Pa.

A new Zogby poll of likely Democratic voters in Pennsylvania shows Clinton and Obama deadlocked. Clinton checks in at 45 percent to Obama's 44 percent, well within the +-4.1 margin of error. 12 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats are undecided.

Obama has widened his advantage among men, beating Clinton 50% to 35, and is now the favorite of union households. Obama has also wrested the 35 to 54 age group from Clinton, who led just one week ago by a 45% to 40 margin. Obama now leads the age group 47% to 41. However, Clinton maintains a healthy lead among women and seniors.

Reaction to the ABC Tabloid Debate

The ABC debate was first and foremost something fit for the tabloids. 56 of the alloted 90 minutes were devoted to questions about Reverend Wright, William Ayers, flag lapel pins and, briefly, Bosnia. At no point during these 56 long minutes did the moderators approach anything of substance. A lot has happened in the last six weeks - among other things, General Petraeus's testimony and the Bear Sterns bailout - but none of these made the list. Of course, ABC should have anticipated this, having plucked one of the two moderators from the Clinton administration.

When the moderators finally got around to a few questions on the issues, we learned a little bit about the candidates on social security. Clinton apparently opposes an increase in the $97,000 payroll cap as she criticized Obama for proposing it. Obama in turn criticized Clinton for proposing instead a commission to study the problem, pointing out that the last commission proposed raising the payroll cap.

I won't even try to make a determination of who won the debate. After all, how do you win a mugging?

Add 3 More Superdelegates to Obama's Column

Obama just picked up three more superdelegates. Representatives Mel Watt and Congressman David Price of North Carolina became the second and third members of their delegation to endorse Obama while Representative André Carson of Indiana joins at least 25 state legislators supporting Obama.

The timing of the three endorsements is notable. All three Congressman had previously indicated that they would remain impartial and may well have concluded that an upset is possible on April 22. By endorsing Obama now, they ensure that their endorsements count for something, politically speaking.

Just 39% Think Clinton Honest and Trustworthy

Just 39 percent of Americans believe Sen. Clinton is "honest and trustworthy" according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, a 13 point drop from May 2006. By contrast, 62 percent of Americans believe Sen. Obama to be honest and trustworthy. Notably, only 37 percent of independents say the same about Clinton.

It is difficult, if not impossible, to reconcile Clinton's gaping trust deficit with her argument that she stands the best chance of defeating Sen. McCain in November. If a clear majority of Americans - particularly independents - don't trust her, her chances will likely reside somewhere between slim and none.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Endorses Obama

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette handed Obama a big endorsement this morning.

On Tuesday, Pennsylvanians will have the unusual luxury of voting in a Democratic presidential primary that promises to be truly relevant. Like two opposing armies marching to a new Gettysburg, the forces of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton come to this latest battlefield symbolizing two views of America -- one of the past, one of the future. Pennsylvania Democrats need to rise to the historic moment.

For us it is the candidates' vision and character that loom as the decisive factors in this race. For as dissimilar as they are, the two share much in common. It starts with their mold-breaking candidacies. Whoever wins the nomination will vie for a special place in U.S. history -- to be either the first African-American or the first female commander in chief.
...
Sen. Obama is every bit as prepared to answer the ring of the 3 a.m. phone as Sen. Clinton. Forget this idea that Sen. Obama is all inspiration and no substance. He has detailed positions on the major issues. When the occasion demands it, he can marshal eloquence in the service of making challenging arguments, which he did to great effect in his now-famous speech putting his pastor's remarks in the greater context of race relations in America.

Nor is he any sort of elitist. As he said yesterday in effectively refuting this ridiculous charge in a meeting with Post-Gazette editors, "my life's work has been to get everybody a fair shake." This editorial began by observing that one candidate is of the past and one of the future. The litany of criticisms heaped on Sen. Obama by the Clinton camp, simultaneously doing the work of the Republicans, is as illustrative as anything of which one is which.

These are the cynical responses of the old politics to the new.

Sen. Obama has captured much of the nation's imagination for a reason. He offers real change, a vision of an America that can move past not only racial tensions but also the political partisanship that has so bedeviled it.

Pennsylvania -- this encrusted, change-averse commonwealth where a state liquor monopoly holds on against all reason and where municipal fiefdoms shrink from sensible consolidation -- needs to take a strong look at the new face and the new hope in this race. Because political business-as-usual is more likely to bring the usual disappointment for the Democrats this fall, the Post-Gazette endorses the nomination of Barack Obama, who has brought an excitement and an electricity to American politics not seen since the days of John F. Kennedy.

19 Mayors Attend Clinton's "100 Mayors" Rally

Sen. Clinton orchestrated what seemed a brilliant event: 100 mayors throughout Pennsylvania assembling to endorse Clinton's candidacy. Unfortunately, only 19 mayors showed up - a huge embarrassment for the Clinton campaign. Later in the day, one of the 19 mayors in attendance lied away the empty chairs at a rally in Easton.

"Earlier today I was in our Capitol in Harrisburg, in the Rotunda, where I was joined by 100 other mayors across our state, in a coalition that this state has never seen, in support of Sen. Clinton," Easton Mayor Sal Panto said.

Obama spokesman Sean Smith said participation in the rally was "about the same percentage of voters who actually care about this story."

Obama Up 5 in Indiana, Down 5 in Pennsylvania

New polls conducted by the Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg show Obama leading Clinton by 5 in Indiana with 19 percent undecided and trailing Clinton by the same margin in Pennsylvania with 12 percent undecided. Both polls bode well for Obama, who in March trailed Clinton by 9 points in Indiana and by as much as 26 points in Pennsylvania.

When asked whether superdelegates should vote for the popular vote winner or as they like, Indianans said that superdelegates should vote for the popular vote winner by a 52% to 39 margin. Pennsylvanians said the same by a 56% to 37 margin; North Carolinians by a 54% to 38 margin.

John Stewart Mocks Clinton and Media Over Obama's "Bitter" Remarks

Jon Stewart mocked the Clinton camp and mainstream media for their obsession with the "bitter" nonstory. With respect to the "elitist" label, Stewart asks, "If you don't think you're better than us, then what the fu@# are you doing [running for President]?"

Obama Speaks the Bitter Truth

In recent days, the mainstream media has taken Sen. Obama to task for his remarks concerning working class families in small towns throughout America. In their endeavors to clip Obama's comments and present them in the most controversial light possible, they missed entirely the bitter truth in his remarks. Let me begin with some much needed context.

Here’s how it is: in a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long. They feel so betrayed by government that when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn’t buy it . . .

But — so the questions you’re most likely to get about me, ‘Well, what is this guy oing to do for me? What is the concrete thing?’ What they wanna hear is so we’ll give you talking points about what we’re proposing . . .

But the truth is, is that, our challenge is to get people persuaded that we can make progress when there’s not evidence of that in their daily lives. You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Americans in small towns are bitter - and with good reason. Since Bush took office, American workers in the manufacturing and other sectors have been among the foremost sources of productivity growth and increased profitability for their corporate employers. Labor productivity has increased more than 4 percent per year at the same time wages have declined in real terms. The cost of college has risen over 60 percent, the cost of health insurance has increased 78 percent and gas prices have risen roughly 60 percent.

People in small towns have every reason to be bitter and Obama was right to represent their frustrations to the American people. If a candidate doesn't understand the problems facing working class families, then he or she cannot hope to address them. Obama comes from a working class family and just recently finished paying off his student loans. It is absurd to suggest that he was stereotyping working class families in San Francisco. He was standing up for them. To call Obama an elitist is to brand the vast majority of Americans with the same label.

New Polls in Carolina, Indiana and Pennsylvania

We have three new polls in this morning from North Carolina, Indiana and Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, Public Policy Polling has Obama romping Clinton by 20 points. In Indiana, SurveyUSA shows Clinton with a commanding 16 point lead. Finally, in Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac shows Clinton with a 6 point lead within a 6 point margin of error. Quinnipiac's sample size was 2,103, the largest of any Pennsylvania poll to date.

Chris Matthews for U.S. Senate?

Chris Matthews, host of NBC's Hardball, indicated on the Colbert Report last night that he might be interested in running for the U.S. Senate in 2010. A native of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Matthews appears to have his eye on Sen. Arlen Specter's seat.

MATTHEWS: Yeah, well . . . Did you ever want to be something, your whole life? Besides this?

COLBERT: I was about to say I achieved it; go ahead.

MATTHEWS: Well, it’s something you grow up, and you want — some kids want to be a fireman - I want to be a Senator.

COLBERT: That’s an announcement!

MATTHEWS: But, you know, I have to deal with these things as they come.

COLBERT: 'As they come?' Senators take control, sir!

MATTHEWS: Ha!

COLBERT: Make an announcement, right now! Show some balls!

MATTHEWS: I, um . . . you know what the difference is . . . can I say something seriously?

COLBERT: Why not?

MATTHEWS: There’s a difference between being a celebrity and someone who works for the people. And it’s a greater thing to work for the people than being on television.

Clinton, Obama Address Alliance for American Manufacturing in Pittsburgh

Senators Clinton and Obama addressed the Alliance for American Manufacturing in Pittsburgh this morning and took the opportunity to pitch a few mortars at one another. Clinton told workers that Obama "looks down on you" in reference to Obama's remarks about frustrated workers in small towns throughout America. Obama said Clinton and McCain are "out of touch" and "singing from the same hymn book."

Here are the transcripts of Clinton's and Obama's full remarks.

New Susquehanna Poll: Dead Heat in Pa.

Obama has very nearly closed the gap in Pennsylvania according to new poll conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Although Clinton was 14 points ahead in Susquehanna's previous poll, her lead is now down to 3 points and within the poll's 4 point margin of error. A whopping 18 percent of likely Democratic voters remain undecided.

Obama's favorables relative to Clinton are also noteworthy. 62 percent of voters registered a favorable opinion of Obama while just 19 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion. Although 61 percent of voters express a favorable opinion of Clinton, 25 percent registered an unfavorable view.

Obama Slams Clinton on Trade Flip-Flops

While the Clinton camp attempts to divert attention to Obama's "bitter" remarks, Obama has come out swinging on trade, taking Clinton to task for her strong support of NAFTA and empty opposition to the Colombian free trade agreement.

"Here's what you can't do. You can't spend the better part of two decades campaigning for NAFTA and PNTR for China, and then come here to Pennsylvania, and tell the steelworkers you've been with them all along," Obama told the Association of American Manufacturers. "You can't say you are opposed to the Colombia Trade deal, while your key strategist is working for the Colombian government to get the deal passed."

Obama also poked fun at Clinton's new tales of hunting in the backwoods of Arkansas, noting that Clinton didn't seem too interested in gun issues until Obama made his small town remarks. "She's talking like she's Annie Oakley," Obama said.

Clinton has focused her fire on Obama's remarks, saying Dems ought to "make it clear that we are not [elitist]." Obama immediately fired back.

"This is the same person who took money from financial folks on Wall Street and then voted for bankruptcy bill that makes it harder for folks right here in Pennsylvania to get a fair shake. Who do you think is out of touch?" Obama said. "This is the same person who spent a decade with her husband campaigning for NAFTA, and now goes around saying she's opposed to NAFTA."

Now Hillary's a Hunter (Snipers Beware)

When asked a question about the Second Amendment, Clinton answered with hunting tales from the backwoods of Arkansas. "You know my dad took me out behind the cottage my grandfather built on a little lake called Lake Winola outside of Scranton and taught me how to shoot when I was a little girl," Clinton recalled. Granted, Clinton's father had little choice, ya know, with all the snipers out there.

In Wisconsin, Clinton attempted to rebound from 10 straight losses by telling voters she capped a banded duck which, of course, means she's tough (like when she sip-slammed that shot of whiskey in Indiana)

"I remember standing in the cold water. It was so cold, you know, at first light. I was with a bunch of my friends, all men . . . And they all were playing a trick on me, and said, 'We're not going to shoot, you shoot,' 'cause you know what they wanted to do. They wanted to embarrass me. So the pressure was on. So I shot, and I shot a banded duck."

And then brokered a peace deal between the animals and forest nymphs.

Shockingly, Mike McAuliff of the New York Daily News, who had covered Sen. Clinton for almost three years, had never heard of any of Clinton's hunting exploits. Mr. McAuliff asked Clinton what she had shot, to which Clinton answered, a duck as well as "a lot of tin cans and a lot of targets and some skeet."

Obama, McCain Tied in North Carolina

A new Rasmussen poll of likely voters in North Carolina shows Obama and McCain tied 47% to 47 in a general election matchup. 3 percent of voters are undecided while another 3 percent favor a third-party candidate. If Clinton were the Democratic nominee, McCain would defeat her 51% to 40 in the Tar Heel State. These numbers lend strong support to our analysis in "How Obama Transforms the Electoral Map."

Obama Narrows the Gap to 4 in Pennsylvania

A new Zogby poll shows Obama trailing Clinton by just 4 points in Pennsylvania less than two weeks before Democrats head to the polls. Clinton's narrow 47% to 43 lead is just outside the +-3.2 margin of error. With 10 percent undecided, Obama has ample room for an upset.

Zogby observes that age 35 appears to be the break point. Among voters under the age of 35, Obama leads by a 61% to 32 margin. Voters over 35, the larger population group, break for Clinton by a 50% to 39 margin.

Dick Cheney Weighs in on Rev. Wright as if America Cares

Vice President Dick Cheney made a brief appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show to weigh in on the Wright controversy. Apparently, Cheney was under the false impression that he had an ounce of credibility left with the American people.

"I thought some of the things he said were absolutely appalling," Cheney said. "And, you know, I haven't gotten into the business of trying to judge how Sen. Obama dealt with it, or didn't deal with it, but I really -- I think, like most Americans, I was stunned at what the reverend was preaching in his church and then putting up on his Web site."

I must admit that I was surprised to learn Cheney spends a few minutes here and there on the websites of black churches. Frankly, I was surprised Cheney knows how to turn the computer on. In any case, Cheney has no business criticizing anyone including Rev. Wright. Rev. Wright never lied to us about the connection between al-Qaeda and Iraq or covered up intel showing that Iran had suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Cheney did.

And last I checked, Cheney has an approval rating of 15 percent, which positions him slightly ahead of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the clap. Governor Spitzer still has a lower disapproval rating than Cheney. If one of our esteemed polling organizations were to sample American approval of Rev. Wright, I'm fairly confident Wright would come out ahead of Cheney.

Bill Caught Lying About Hillary's Bosnia Fable

Yesterday on the campaign trail, President Clinton joined in his wife's storytelling with respect to Bosnia. President Clinton criticized the media, saying "there was a lot of fulminating because Hillary, one time late at night when she was exhausted, misstated and immediately apologized for it, what happened to her in Bosnia in 1995."

Sen. Clinton told the Bosnia fable at an event in Iowa on December 29, at an event in Texas on February 29, and in the morning on March 17. And Sen. Clinton never apologized, but said she "mispoke." And her admission was hardly immediate - it took her a week. Is Bill trying to sabotage his wife's already small chances?

McCain is a "Natural Born" U.S. Citizen

Senators Patrick Leahy and Claire McCaskill introduced a non-binding resolution, S. 2678, to the effect that Sen. John McCain is a "natural born Citizen," as contemplated by Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, and thereby eligible to serve as President. Article II, Section 1 specifically states that "No person except a natural born Citizen…shall be eligible to the Office of President." Senators Obama and Clinton are co-sponsors of the Leahy-McCaskill resolution.

In February, the New York Times raised the question of whether Sen. McCain satisfied the aforementioned constitutional prerequisite to become President. Sen. McCain was born in 1936 at the Coco Solo submarine base in the U.S.-run Panama Canal Zone while his father served as an officer in the Navy. If elected, McCain would be the first President born outside of the 50 states.

“There are powerful arguments that Senator McCain or anyone else in this position is constitutionally qualified, but there is certainly no precedent,” said Professor Sarah H. Duggin of Catholic University. “It is not a slam-dunk situation.”

While it may not be "a slam-dunk," it's a fairly easy layup. Congress passed the Naturalization Act of 1790 to include within the definition of "natural born" "children of citizens of the United States, that may be born beyond the sea, or out of the limits of the United States." While the Constitution cannot be amended by legislative act, the Act is an authoritative expression of original intent seeing as the Constitution had been ratified just 2 years earlier.

Bush Approval Reaches Historic Low at 28%

President Bush's job approval rating has sunk to 28 percent, the lowest rating of his administration and one of the lowest in American history according to Gallup. Only Nixon and Truman registered lower approval ratings than Bush. Just 66 percent of Republicans, 24 percent of Independents and 6 percent of Democrats support the President.

How Obama Transforms the Electoral Map II

In "How Obama Transforms the Electoral Map," I compiled and analyzed available polling data on head-to-head, state-by-state general election matchups for Obama v. McCain and Clinton v. McCain. I ultimately concluded that Clinton's electoral strategy comes from the old playbook while Obama has a real chance to transform the electoral map come November. While my conclusions garnered both praise and criticism, they at least got Democrats thinking about November.

As we've received a stack of new polls since my first installment, I've updated the Obama and Clinton electoral maps to reflect these developments. Perhaps most surprising is how little has changed.

For our feed and email readers, the first map shows McCain leading Clinton 245 to 187 with 106 electoral votes up-for-grabs. The second map shows Obama leading McCain 219 to 107 with 212 electoral votes outstanding.

Here are some of the recent data I've looked at:

• In Alaska, Obama and Clinton trail by 5 and 25 respectively. No change.
• In Iowa, Obama leads by 4 and Clinton trails by 15. No change.
• In Montana, Obama and Clinton trail by 5 and 18 respectively. Montana changed from McCain State to Swing State on the Obama map.
• In New Mexico, Obama leads by 3 and Clinton trails by 3. No change, though I will change New Mexico to a Swing State on Clinton map next time if she remains within 5.
• In Ohio, Obama trails by 3 and Clinton leads by 2 (average of two latest polls). No change.
• In Oregon, Obama leads by 6 and Clinton trails by 6. No change.
• In Virginia, Obama and Clinton trail by 5.5 and 16 respectively (average of two latest polls). No change.
• In Washington, Obama leads by 5 and Clinton trails by 3. No change, though I will change Washington to a Swing State on the Clinton map next time if she continues to trail.
• In Wisconsin, Obama leads by 4 and Clinton trails by 4. Wisconsin changed from McCain State to Swing State on the Clinton map.

Obama to Receive 11 Endorsements from Pennsylvania Elected Officials Today

Sen. Obama will receive 11 endorsements from Pennsylvania elected officials today, including six Philadelphia City Councilmembers, three State Representatives and two State Senators.

"In Pennsylvania, we realize that top party officials are not with us as it relates to Senator Obama's candidacy," Councilman Curtis Jones said, "but there are three words that were born in Philadelphia and still resonate across the Commonwealth today, and they are 'We the People.'"

McCain Thumps Clinton by 6 in Tracking Poll

Although 63 percent of Americans believe the federal government is not doing enough to revitalize the economy, Sen. McCain, an admitted economic neophyte, thumps Clinton 48% to 42 in Rasmusen's daily tracking poll for April 10. Contrastly, Obama and McCain remain neck-in-neck. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 52 percent of the electorate and unfavorably by 45 percent. Clinton is viewed favorably by 45 percent; unfavorably by 53 percent.

Rasmussen also released polling data on Senate races in Alaska, New Mexico and Alabama. While Sen. Sessions has a comfortable lead in Alabama, Sen. Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich are tied in Alaska. In New Mexico, Congressman Tom Udall crushes GOP opponents Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson by 14 and 20 percent respectively.

Speaker Pelosi Stands Strong on Trade

In two terms, President Bush has pushed through a series of trade agreements, most of which are neither free nor fair. Without labor and environmental standards and a real commitment to low- or no trade barriers, these agreements have effectively outsourced countless jobs and entire sectors of the American economy, i.e., manufacturing. While Democrats demand free and fair trade on the campaign trail, they have far too often looked the other way when Bush's trade agreements came to the floor. Apparently, Speaker Pelosi's had enough.

Until now, no President has sent a trade agreement to Congress that the Speaker had not signed-off on. As current law gives Congress 60 legislative days to consider an agreement once submitted, Bush is attempting to jam the measure through. Pelosi is having none of it and will put before the House a rule to freeze the 60-day clock.

"On Monday, I received a call from the President saying that he would be sending over the Colombia Free Trade Agreement to the Congress. I recommended against that course of action to the President, because I think we needed more time . . . And what the President said Monday, and by his actions yesterday, was that he wanted to abandon any discussion protocols about how this could properly be brought to the floor. That’s one thing, but more importantly, was how we could properly address the concerns of America’s working families," Pelosi said.

Pelosi's intends to press the White House for additional economic stimulus measures to assist middle- and working-class families and to send Congress a Colombian trade agreement that's not written in crayon. Pelosi is meeting limited resistance from Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, both of whom have unapologetically supported Bush's previous trade agreements.

"The president took his action,” Pelosi said on Wednesday. “I will take mine tomorrow."

Colombia is one of the most dangerous countries for labor in the world with more than 2,500 unionists murdered by Colombian paramilitary deathsquads since 1986. The Colombian government has thus far turned a blind eye to these killings.

Pelosi: "Dream Ticket" Not Going to Happen

For the second time in as many months, Speaker Nancy Pelosi shot down the possibility of an Obama-Clinton "dream ticket" during an interview on MTV. Although Pelosi cited geographic considerations in doing so, Pelosi's statement is undoubtedly predicated on her belief that Clinton stands no chance of winning the nomination.

"I've just been involved in politics for a very long time and I just don't think that would be the ticket," Pelosi told a panel of students. "Whoever the person is that's running for president is his or her own person. The only time I saw something like this come together was when I was your age, when I was in college, and John F. Kennedy chose Lyndon Johnson."

And John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson hated each other. Should Clinton wrest the nomination from Obama, there is near-universal agreement that Clinton must offer Obama the VP spot to prevent civil war. If Obama wins, as is expected, he is at liberty to choose whomever he likes (and Clinton isn't high on that list).

In March, Pelosi dismissed the so-called "dream ticket" as "impossible," on a separate occasion stating, "Take it from me, that won't be the ticket."

Special Counsel to President Clinton Attempts to Reignite Wright Controversy

Lanny Davis, former Special Counsel to President Clinton and a supporter of Sen. Clinton, attempts to rekindle the Wright controversy in a shameful op-ed published in today's Wall Street Journal. While acknowledging that Obama "[c]learly . . . does not share the extremist views of Rev. Wright" and "is a tolerant and honorable person," Davis insists that questions remain.

Davis blockquotes a few of Wright's most reprehensible statements to ensure that any who had not yet heard or read them, would have that chance. Davis then proceeds to recite Clinton's talking points on Wright. Compare, for example ...

"I don't get a chance to choose my family members," Davis writes, "I do get a chance to choose my spiritual or religious leader and my congregation."

"You don't choose your family," Clinton said, "but you choose what church you want to attend."

Davis clearly anticipated the character of response his op-ed would engender. "Some have suggested that any Clinton supporters who continue to raise this issue are "playing the race card" or taking the 'low' road," Davis writes.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that any Clinton supporters who discuss Wright are "playing the race card" or taking the "low road." I am, however, asserting that Lanny Davis is guilty on both counts.

Obama Leads McCain by Double-Digits Among Independents

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll for April 9 shows Obama leading McCain 49% to 39 among independent or unaffiliated voters. Overall, Obama leads McCain 46% to 45 while McCain leads Clinton 47% to 44. This is the first time since the second week in March that either Democratic candidate has led McCain in Rasmussen's tracking poll.

Obama also maintains a 9 point lead over Clinton. This is fifth straight day Obama has reached or exceeded the 50% support threshold.

White House Suddenly Talking to Iran

In case you missed it, Ambassador Ryan Crocker testified yesterday that the White House is "willing to sit down with Iran face to face for talks on Iraqi security at the invitation of the Iraqi government." "We've had three rounds of those talks and we've told them we are ready to again," Crocker added. This is exactly what Obama has been saying the U.S. should do.

While both President Bush and Sen. Clinton have sharply criticized Obama for his expressed willingness to talk to Iran, the White House has since come around to Obama's view. This is second time Obama has been criticized for a foreign policy position the administration has ultimately adopted. The first concerned al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

"It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al-Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005," Obama said in reference to reports that the White House had decided against a strike for fear of damaging ties with Pakistan. "If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will," Obama has said repeatedly.

President Bush responded critically to Obama's remarks on Fox. "I certainly don't know what [Obama] believes in. The only foreign policy thing I remember he said was he's going to attack Pakistan..."

Apparently, Bush headed straight for the situation room following the interview. Last month, the U.S. escalated its unilateral strikes against al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan's ungoverned border region.

McCain Confuses Shia and Sunni, Again.

While questioning General David Petraeus about developments in Iraq, Sen. John McCain once again confused Shia and Sunni Muslims, calling al Qaeda an "obscure sect of the Shi'ites."

In March, McCain told reporters that it is "common knowledge and has been reported in the media that al-Qaeda is going back into Iran and receiving training and are coming back into Iraq from Iran, that's well known." Sen. Lieberman then informed McCain that Iran was not training al-Qaeda whereupon McCain quickly corrected himself. "I’m sorry, the Iranians are training extremists, not al-Qaeda."

Unfortunately, Sen. Lieberman could not bail McCain out this time as Chairman Levin and Sen. Kennedy were sitting between them.

Obama 8 Points Stronger in Washington State

According to a new poll by SurveyUSA, Sen. Obama beats Sen. McCain 51% to 44 in a head-to-head matchup. McCain downs Clinton 46% to 45 in the same poll. In "How Obama Transforms the Electoral Map," I endeavored to show that Obama transforms the electoral map in a way Clinton cannot, competing in red states and handily winning some swing states. While I gave Washington to Clinton in my analysis, the numbers to date suggest that Washington State's 11 electoral votes would be hotly contested in a Clinton-McCain matchup.

Obama is strong in the Northwest generally. Obama crushed Clinton by 62 points in Idaho, by 24 in North Dakota, by 37 in Washington and by 23 in Wyoming. In Oregon, Obama leads Clinton by double-digits in advance of its May 20 primary and McCain by 9 points in a general election matchup.

Obama Surging in Superdelegates

Obama is now just 23 superdelegates behind Clinton as Montana DNC Members Margaret Campbell and Jeanne Lemire Dahlman confirmed yesterday that they are endorsing the Illinois Senator. Campbell backed away from a "formal" endorsement because of party rules. North Dakota also named Fargo businessman and Obama adviser Dan Hannaher as its add-on superdelegate.

In the past 24 hours, Clinton has lost DC DNC Member Harry Thomas and Louisiana DNC Member Mary Lou Winters. Winters was replaced by undecided Elsie Burkhalter.

On Saturday, Obama picked up 3 add-on superdelegates: from Missouri State Auditor Susan Montee, D.C. Councilwoman Yvette Alexander and Delaware DNC Member Rob Carver.

Obama has gained 70 superdelegates in total since February 5. Clinton has lost 3.

UPDATE: We previously reported that Utah DNC Member Helen Langan, a Clinton supporter, changed to uncommitted status. This was based on erroneous information in an NPR article. Ms. Langan remains a Clinton supporter and we appreciate her taking the time to clarify this for us.

Clinton Attempts to Rewrite Iraq War History

I couldn't let this one go without saying something about it. On Saturday in Oregon, Sen. Clinton claimed that she "actually started criticizing the war before [Obama] did." This is nothing short of a blatant lie. To make it work, Clinton suggested that the only real metric concerning opposition to the war is how one voted in the U.S. Senate.

"When Sen. Obama came to the Senate he and I have voted exactly the same except for one vote," Clinton said. "And that happens to be the facts. We both voted against early deadlines."

To support her claim, Clinton relies on a statement she made for the Congressional record in response to President Bush's appointment of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State. The only problem is that Obama criticized the war during Rice's confirmation hearing - 8 days earlier.

A month later, Clinton traveled to Iraq. Upon her return, she criticized a proposed timetable for withdrawal. "I don’t think it’s useful to set a deadline because I think it sends a signal to the terrorists and the insurgents that they just have to wait us out," she said.

Of course, Clinton's argument also ignores Obama's public condemnation of the decision to go to war on October 2, 2002. At the time, Obama said the following:

"I don't oppose all wars . . . What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne."

9 days later, Clinton voted for the war in Iraq.

Obama Opens Up 10 Point Lead in Tracking Poll

Last week was a rough one for Clinton, and this week isn't starting out too well either. Rasmussen's latest tracking poll shows Obama with a 10 point lead over Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Last Monday, Obama's lead stood at 3 points. Obama starts the week with a 23 point lead in North Carolina and in a deadheat with Clinton in Pennsylvania and Indiana.

Clinton Cans Mark Penn

The Clinton campaign has confirmed that Chief Strategist Mark Penn was given the proverbial boot (marginalized with title) - which would make it the second time Penn has been fired in as many days.

Apparently, the Clintons were angered to learn that Penn is lobbying in favor a U.S.-Colombia trade agreement that Sen. Clinton claims to oppose. I can't decide which is worse: the fact that Penn lobbied for the agreement or that the Clintons weren't aware of Penn's activities.

Is Clinton Down for the Count?

With just over two weeks left until Pennsylvanians head to the polls, Obama has a commanding 12 point lead over Clinton according to a new national poll by Diageo Hotline. In December, Clinton led by 5 in the same poll. As if Clinton week hasn't been bad enough already.

Notwithstanding the fact that Rev. Wright's greatest hits dominated the airwaves in March, Obama's favorability among Democrats actually rose 7 points. Clinton's sunk 13 points. Roughly half of Democrats said that Clinton has been attacking Obama unfairly. About a fifth said the same about Obama.

The results of the poll are consistent with what we've seen in other polls. Clinton's one-time 33 point lead in Pennsylvania is now a dead heat. Obama has closed the gap in Indiana and widened his lead in North Carolina (with its 134 delegates) to 23 points.

Given the numbers, many are predicting that Obama will deliver a knockout punch in North Carolina. I frankly don't think she's going to make it to North Carolina as it seems that the arc of the political universe is pointed directly at Barack Obama.